Last October I was bedecked in orange and black,sitting in Camden Yards looking up at a glowing JumboTron screen. It read four of the most beautiful words in the English language: “American League East Champions.” With the 2015 Orioles finishing their season at .500 (81-81) that screen, and the mood around here, is dark.
Well, at least they went out in grand style with Chris Davis smashing two more home runs (he of course, lead the league with 47) and a sweep of the New York Yankees.
The end of the regular season ushers in fall and a time of uncertainty. Will it be 70 degrees or 40 degrees today? Will we have enough guys to fill our fall baseball lineup this weekend ? What are the forecasters predicting for winter this year?
With six key players set to become free agents this offseason it is also an uncertain time for the Orioles. These players include: Chris Davis (1B), Matt Wieters (C), Wei-Yin Chen (LHP), Darren O’Day (RHP), Gerardo Parra (OF), Steve Pearce (IF-OF).
(Indulge me in my Steve Pearce crush for a moment. 🙂 Thank you.)
Uncertainty is uncomfortable. Our brains are wired to want to “know.” We speculate, we predict, we make plans. We want information. Perhaps this enhances our illusion of control. But deep down we all know the painful truth – that despite all of the speculating and planning we may do -none of us ever have a clue what is going to happen from one minute to the next.
Uncertainty is generally referred to as a bad thing. But wouldn’t a world where we always knew what was coming next be extremely boring? It would be like re-watching the game you had seen the night before. When you know what’s going to happen – the thrill is gone.
One thing we do know is that Chris Davis will be a hot commodity on the open market. What we don’t know (or, we kind of do, unfortunately) is whether the Orioles will be able to come up with the cash to keep him. But even if they did, we really don’t know if he can repeat his stellar offensive performances again.
Here is an interesting quote from Dennis Lindley:
There are some things that you know to be true, and others that you know to be false; yet, despite this extensive knowledge that you have, there remain many things whose truth or falsity is not known to you. We say that you are uncertain about them. You are uncertain, to varying degrees, about everything in the future; much of the past is hidden from you; and there is a lot of the present about which you do not have full information. Uncertainty is everywhere and you cannot escape from it.Dennis Lindley,Understanding Uncertainty(2006)
So, if we cannot escape uncertainty, our only other option is to embrace it. Next year’s 2016 Orioles will most likely be a very, very different team. Here is hoping that somewhere in the uncertainty, there will be opportunity.